An analysis published in the Lancet suggests that that the malaria mortality burden globally is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. The analysis used computer modelling to build a historical database for malaria between 1980 and 2010. Global malaria deaths increased from 995,000 in 1980 to a peak of 1,817,000 in 2004, decreasing to 1,238 000 in 2010. The data show that there were 1.24 million deaths from malaria worldwide in 2010 - around twice the figure of 655 000 estimated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) for the same year. However, both the study and the WHO indicate global death rates due to malaria are now falling. A related editorial calls for urgent action to review these data and re-align priorities in malaria control.

The Editor of the Lancet told BBC News, “"Right now we don't actually have any reliable primary numbers for malaria deaths in some of the most malarious regions of the world, so what numbers we have come from estimates. What this paper reports is a new way of estimating the number of malaria deaths, where they've used additional data sets and improved mathematical models from calculating mortality." Despite what he calls the "disturbing" number of deaths recorded, he believes the underlying message of the report is that the disease can and is being controlled.