NHS Choices has conducted an assessment of a report in the Daily Mail that “obesity could be driving a 50% rise in people suffering acid reflux over the last decade.”

The report is based on a study published in Gut which found that the number of people experiencing at least one acid reflux attack a week has risen from 11.6% to 17.1% in just over a decade, while for those suffering severe symptoms, it is up from 5.4% to 6.7%.

The assessment notes that this was a well-conducted, study although it had some important limitations, including its reliance on people self-reporting their symptoms of acid reflux; also, much of it relied on people themselves deciding if their symptoms were minor or severe.

The assessment notes that the Mail's claim that fatty diets have triggered the increase is not proven by this research, which did not look at people’s diets. However, we it is known that excess weight and obesity are on the increase and that they are a risk factor for GORD. In addition, the Mail's report of a 50% increase in symptoms gives the increase in relative risk (47%), which is perhaps misleading- in absolute terms, the percentage rise in people getting GORD at least once a week was 5.5% (from 11.6 to 17.1%). It adds that “while the findings are of concern, it is possible that the increase may partly be accounted for by the increasing number of older people, since the risk of GORD increases with age. The study did not look at the role of obesity, although it can increase the risk of GORD.”