The consultation rate for flu-like illness in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme decreased to 36.0 per 100,000 in week 45 compared to 37.7 in week 44.

HPA modelling gives an estimate of 64,000 new cases in England last week (range 32,000 to 140,000), which represents a 24% decrease on the previous week.  Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. The HPA estimates a cumulative total number of cases of 668,000 (range 313,000 to 1,382,000) since the pandemic began.

The main burden of flu-like illness nationally in week 45 is in the <1 and 1-4 years age groups.  Antiviral collection numbers in the National Pandemic Flu Service have decreased in all age groups.

The recent half-term school holidays may have continued to influence the figures this week, and so it is difficult to predict future trends.